Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. SW Satellite Weather (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; google_color_text = "000000"; google_color_link = "0000FF"; The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. CNN's Bill Weir has more. google_color_url = "426C95"; The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. What's the weather forecast for 2050? It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. 15 Day Weather Forecast 15 Day Weather Forecast Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. google_color_link = "0000FF"; "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. google_ad_type = "text_image"; As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. n$L{Z. 192 0 obj <>stream "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. %%EOF Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Lake Mead's water levels . Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T Click for . Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . SW Satellite Weather //2006-10-04: news (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. 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