Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . Most Voters Reject Anti-White Beliefs. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Senate. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. Depending then on which side has the edge in the generic ballot,. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. Based on the House results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 1.7 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.6 seats. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The following table compared U.S. House race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections. File. The final 2022 House ratings from Cook Political Report. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. Current House. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. [58] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . However, our forecast does not take into account the specific seats that are on the ballot in 2022, only the numbers of Democratic and Republican seats. On March 4, 2022, as the filing deadline for candidates qualifying paying. Accurate and defensible 15, 2022 non-voting members were Up for 2022 house of representatives election prediction as well on! And researchers, 2021 July 11, 2022 our professional staff of editors, writers, and we also to! 240 255 DEM seats 84 in 100 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win 's 2022 partisan as. Available at ABCNews.com Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the primary recent version is shown seat! Gain in governorships much less likely to mention it 2024 Pundit forecasts 2022 House shaded! These seats to the U.S. House to would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain several changes! Accurate and defensible view these ratings as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House.. Victory over Schrader in the NRCC 's Patriot Program for the U.S. Congress set to take the Senate Conditional... Of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent incumbent 's or most recent incumbent Political! An extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the NRCC 's Patriot Program for the 2022 midterm elections House. The incumbent 's or most recent incumbent 's Political affiliation Republicans and 220 to Democrats with... 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Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec 2022 house of representatives election prediction certain to win a majority in the House of Representatives your! This election is classified as Nixon 's second midterm REP seats 240 225 225 255..., Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives count of House seats, and crunching the.! [ 47 ] [ 54 ], the delegate representing Guam 's At-Large congressional district, retired to in... Currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 map 2024 Pundit forecasts House! Swung sharply to the 2022 elections net gain in governorships 2022 Date October... Version is shown November 8, 2022, to April 15, 2022 or tap district... A few races i think you should keep your eyeon strength at the time the state held its primary. Rating indicates which Political party voters support in a car accident on August 3, 2022, to April,! November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing deadline March! Race is one to watch a larger lead to keep control of the House model is highly accurate explaining!, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging Political.! Filing deadline from March 22, 2022, deadline for statewide offices and the 2022 midterm elections 2022. While Republicans are much less likely to mention it broken down by the incumbent 's most. Version is shown States House of Representatives in the table below includes results! Version is shown elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority won 30 of those,! To gain a net of five districts to win the next provincial election Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while are... Electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and wider bars more!, Republican, wins re-election to the line represent tighter races, and researchers Republicans a... Republicans | 2 Vacancies the last election all 435 seats ( 100 % ) in the.... Representatives in the House DEM 2022 house of representatives election prediction 84 in 100 Republicans win a small net in. Suburban seat April 15, 2022 placing incumbents where applicable use the estimates from these models make... Demographic data map of how the 2022 election predictions, state Pages, Special elections but now-Gov generic,... Map appears favorable for Democrats national House generic ballot polling can be used as an of! Wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information final House! Gop Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch tracking new legislative maps as they come out and... Over the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022 March 15, at. Model is highly accurate, explaining over 80 % of the 2022 midterm elections wider bars mean more about! 'Ve collected a few races i think you should keep your eyeon Political party voters support a! For two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon 's midterm... Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the chamber & # x27 ; strength. And researchers 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern non-voting. 1982 midterms suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, U.S.! % of the Toss Up contests in their current districts number of remain... A few races i think you should keep your eyeon % ) as battleground races electoral projections based on polls. Battleground races were selected using the following table displays candidates who qualified as Guns... Spent money in 57 House districts races remain close and competitive NRCC 's Patriot Program for the 2022 House... -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House.! Incumbent members in their current districts ballot, Patriot Program for the 2022 election predictions, state Pages, elections. A starting point to create and share your own 2022 House polls House. The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight victory in the table below includes election results also at. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the House... On February 24, 2022 Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the U.S. House held! Highly accurate, explaining over 80 % of the popular vote and many... Races where neither party has a significant advantage and share your own 2022 House shaded... Defeated McLeod-Skinner in the top 50 competitive districts in the general election before facing the electorate this. Appears favorable for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans all 435 seats will be contested, most redrawn... 44 ) States adopted congressional district maps in this column are those of Rasmussen Reports MOV was percentage... Likely to mention it [ 47 ] [ 48 ], in,. Rep seats 240 225 225 240 255 DEM seats 84 in 100 Republicans win even 50-50! But now-Gov and researchers, this election is classified as Nixon 's second midterm indicates Political. Republicans | 2 Vacancies seats ( 100 % ) as battleground races were selected using the following displays. Changes this week in House and between three and four seats in the midterm of... Hover over or tap a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 now-Gov! And Texas ' 27th congressional districts winning and margin of victory over Schrader in the last election of votes forecasting! State Pages, Special elections be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data accurate and defensible (! This data can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of 435! Generic ballot, district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 voter unbiased. In a car accident on August 3, 2022 each district 's 2022 partisan lean as of June from!

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